Dynamics of correlated novelties

One new thing often leads to another. Such correlated novelties are a familiar part of daily life. They are also thought to be fundamental to the evolution of biological systems, human society and technology. By opening new possibilities, one novelty can pave the way for others in a process that Kauffman has called “expanding the adjacent possible”. However, correlated novelties and how they change over time have yet to be quantified empirically or modeled mathematically. Nowadays, thanks to the availability of extensive longitudinal records of human activity online, it has become possible to test whether everyday novelties crop up by chance alone, or whether one truly does pave the way for another.

In this talk Vittorio Loreto proposes a simple mathematical framework that mimics the process of exploring a physical, biological or conceptual space that enlarges whenever a novelty occurs. He tests the predictions on four data sets of human activity. He also highlights future directions: the interplay between individual and collective effects and the different mechanisms supposedly leading to innovation.